Covid cases in Brown are predicted to continue climbing over the next few weeks, but according to CDC data, county numbers are not increasing as dramatically as numbers for the state and country.
Medical Director of Brown County Dr. Todd Williams said that this is a “bit of good news for us in the county” amid the spike in cases.
Dr Williams said that a likely cause of the rapid increase is the migration of people indoors as winter approaches.
“Cold weather brings people indoors together,” Williams said. “Now that we’ve all come indoors, the number went up and will continue to go up over the next month.”
This trend is not specific to only Covid, Williams explained. The flu other infections follow a similar pattern during this time of year.
“Once people have come inside and their new way of interacting as they do through the winter begins, then new cases level off … until the spring comes, and then the change takes effect again for the better,” he said.
As of December 3, Brown County has had 1,294 total cases, 208 of which are currently active. Models projected by the CDC estimate that numbers will stay in this range for the duration of the next two weeks.
The projected case and death numbers that are shared by the CDC are created by collecting data from multiple medical organizations. The CDC reviews the sources and information, and bases the predictions off of patterns in the trends.
Although the number of cases are reaching record highs for the country and the state, the CDC’s forecast for new cases and Covid-related deaths in Brown County are not as dramatic as compared to their bigger counterparts. Williams credits the plateau to the surge of the spread happening earlier than nationwide.
“I think the biggest factor is that here in Ohio most countries had already had their climb to the new norm that will happen through the colder months,” he said. “Over the next few weeks, I think we will begin to level off.”
Williams said that we can anticipate a vaccine approval in the next few weeks, which will also help to level out and diminish cases in addition to the well-known protocols.
“Of course there are so many factors that can affect how any new cases we see in Brown County, or Ohio, or the United States,” Williams said. “Not the least of which are just the daily habits that we’re asked to implement. Masks, and hand hygiene and social distancing. How compliant people are with that, either voluntarily or if it is government mandated…can affect the trend of the numbers.”